Energy bosses hit with ‘unjustified’ revenue prediction for electric cars


Last year, the Department of Energy forecasted that 195 of the total new car sales by 2030 would be electric vehicles. In last month’s prediction, the figure was raised to 26% regardless of the federal government delaying to release of EVs policy. While making its forecast, the department made assumptions that electric vehicles’ sales would increase based on the current policy rules. The state-based taxes would not negatively affect the uptake. 

Jake Whitehead, an expert on electric vehicle policy from the University of Queensland, said that only government incentives could increase EVs’ sales. He added that small taxes such as those the Victorian government announced last year are likely to decrease electric vehicles’ uptake by up to 50%. Behyad Jafari, Electric Vehicle Council chief executive, said that those projections are not justified in any way, saying that it is not apparent that the EVs market would grow just as in Australia. Jafari added that the 2019 estimation was based on other projections that were constant with modelling by the Commonwealth Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE). 

Jafari also said that the BITRE figures that showed an increase of 26% in electric vehicles’ sales by 2030 also indicated that it would be at 1.4% in 2020. At the moment, the sale of EVs is at 0.7%. He added that the numbers are not giving a clear or an actual picture of the real situation. Dr Whitehead said that electric vehicles’ sales could always remain minimal if the automakers are not willing to produce cheaper models. He added that many people would adopt EVs if they are affordable, just like conventional vehicles are.  At the moment, electric vehicles are a bit expensive, and not many people are willing to commit their money to them. 

However, the majority of automakers are planning to phase out all diesel and petrol engines. Significant markets for conventional vehicles such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France are expected to ban the sale of these vehicles by 2025 and 2030. A tax rebate of $7500 is provided by the United States for the electric vehicles. The transport sector’s emissions reduction transport sector is a clear indication of how Australia is committed to its global climate under the Paris Agreement. The federal government is drafting an EV policy focusing more on infrastructures like installing charging stations and investing in research and development.